Monday, August 5, 2013

Major League Baseball 2013: Could the Philadelphia Phillies be this August's version of the 2012 Red Sox?

One year ago on August 3, 2012, the Boston Red Sox were a 53-54 team. They were 10 games out of first place, and four games back in the AL Wildcard race.

The non-waiver trade deadline had come and gone and the team had yet to make a major move to alter its trajectory of mediocrity.

The Red Sox were in the midst of a fairly miserable season. Key players had underperformed. David Ortiz was hurt, Carl Crawford's health was more of a soap opera than an official status.

Things weren't going well.

Three weeks later Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington figured out a way to dramatically alter the 2012 season, and many future ones as well. All it took was a little helping hand from the Los Angeles Dodgers new ownership, and their GM Ned Colletti.

The Red Sox were an aging team with a mix of players who were either overpaid, underperforming, injured, or all three.

Add in clubhouse discord, and the team really needed a makeover.

That's what Cherington managed to provide when he was able to ship the cumbersome contracts of veterans Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (along with utility man Nick Punto) to the Dodgers in exchange for major leaguer James Loney and four minor league players of various skill levels.

Two of those minor leaguers, pitchers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster appear headed for solid major league careers.

The deal helped the Red Sox on three fronts. In Webster and De La Rosa, Cherington added two highly touted major league pitching prospects, to an already improving minor league system. The deal rid the clubhouse of players who appeared to be unenthusiastic about dealing with the rigors of playing under the microscope of the Boston media and fan base. Perhaps most importantly the trade removed almost all of the Red Sox contractual obligations for players beyond the 2015 season.

In the short-term the trade caused the 2012 squad to plunge into last place, and finish with a 93-loss season. It also laid the groundwork for an active offseason.

The current Red Sox squad is in first place. There is no need whatsoever for the type of franchise altering makeover that the 2012 squad underwent.

The 2013 Philadelphia Phillies are a different story. They bare a striking resemblance to the 2012 Red Sox.

Is the team performing poorly?

Yes they are. In fact right now they're worse than last year's Red Sox squad was.

Philadelphia is 50-59, they're 14.5 games behind first place Atlanta in the NL East. They've lost nine of their last ten, and they're 9.5 games back in the wildcard race.

Does the team have a high payroll that also features large, long-term contracts?

Yes they do. Look for yourself. According to Baseball Prospectus Philadelphia has three players who will be paid in excess of $20 million per year signed through the end of the 2016 season and one of them, Cole Hamels is signed all the way until the end of the 2018 season.

In addition closer Jonathan Papelbon is inked through the end of the 2015 for $13 million a year, with an additional option year still outstanding.

Are the players underperforming?

Look, it is extremely hard to justify earning in excess of $20 million a year to play baseball.

Miguel Cabrera is worth it. Even though he's having an off year, I'd gladly absorb Justin Verlander's massive contract. Joey Votto is worth the money, after that it gets dicey. Many of baseball's best players don't have the best contracts--yet.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a nice selection of well-paid baseball players who are either not playing due to injury, or are not playing all that well for reasons yet to be determined.

Ryan Howard makes $20 million this year. He hasn't been healthy since 2011, and he's currently on the disabled list. When he has been healthy he's become a player who hits for power, but very little else. He doesn't hit for average, he strikes out a ton, and he draws very few walks.

Cole Hamels isn't having as bad a season as his 4-13 record would indicate. Still if you're making $20.5 million a year then you're going to be expected to have a better ERA than 3.87.

Cliff Lee is having a very good season, but at the age of 34 his best years are probably behind him and unfortunately for Philadelphia he's signed for over $20 million a year through the end of the 2015 season.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon is another very talented player, on the wrong side of 30 years old, who makes a lot of money, and whose contract doesn't expire anytime soon.

Papelbon isn't just overpaid, he also is a key example of why the 2013 Phillies bare an unfortunate and striking resemblance to the 2012 Red Sox.

During a recent eight-game losing streak Papelbon seemed displeased with his team, and their management.

"I definitely didn't come here for this," he told MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.

Papelbon's outburst pales in comparison to the rumors of a near team mutiny that the Red Sox went through back in 2012, but it does send a signal that the team has problems that might go beyond just poor on-field performance.

The Phillies won't be able to find a team willing to take on Howard's contract, and Hamels is still young enough to warrant patience, in spite of his massive deal.

Could guys like Jonathan Papelbon and Cliff Lee be part of a massive August trade?

When the Red Sox made that trade last year they were thrilled to get out of the Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford deals. Adrian Gonzalez might not have been an ideal fit in Boston, and in hindsight including him in the deal was a stroke of brilliance. At the time they were willing to let go on Gonzalez because they thought the benefits of shipping Beckett and Crawford out-of-town outweighed any negatives incurred by also losing Gonzalez.

It seems unlikely that too many teams in the age of the luxury tax will be lining up to help Philadelphia get out from under the contracts of Lee and Papelbon.

What if they were willing to throw in Hamels?

Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro seems far less daring than Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington.

In the days counting down to the non-waiver trade deadline Amaro was holding out hope that the Boston Red Sox would ship 20-year-old mega-prospect Xander Bogaerts to Philadelphia in exchange for Lee.

That clearly wasn't on the Red Sox agenda, and if that's the price that Amaro continues to ask in exchange for Lee, then he must be prepared to continue to pay his astronomical salary until his deal runs-out.

Then again if Philadelphia continues to lose, and the sentiments expressed by Papelbon start to be echoed by others in the clubhouse there will be enormous pressure on Amaro to make wholesale changes.

That can't happen if their payroll is weighed down by massive contracts for the next few seasons and beyond.

The odds of another deal similar to the one completed last August between the Dodgers and Red Sox are extremely slim, but if you were looking to make a bold prediction, then the Phillies of 2013 could turn out to be similar to the Red Sox of 2012.

That still leaves one wondering what team would be bold enough to emulate the Los Angeles Dodgers free-spending ways.

Hey, what if Alex Rodriguez were suspended for life, and the Yankees didn't have to pay his contract anymore? That might free-up a ton of payroll.

Don't say you weren't warned.

Source: http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2013/08/major_league_baseball_2013_cou.html

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